Episode 18
Rank: 4
Decline: -1.40%
Lowest Approval: 41.3%
Date Range: July 20-August 31, 2019
Key Events:
Policy: House holds Barr and Ross over Census; fizzled ICE raid; immigration news on dead child, improperly deported citizen, stricter deportation rules, terrible conditions in detention facilities; Trump administration and Pelosi agreed to a budget deal to avoid hitting the debt limit; Coats steps down; Trump announces replacement but then withdraws it four days later; news that 900 children had been separated in the last year; recession chatter resulting in stock market slump; new stricter rules for who gets a green card; some tariff are delayed till after Christmas; White House moves to counter recession; Buying Greenland spat with Denmark; Issues rule overturning Flores Decree; EPA rule change on methane; news about taking money and land for border wall, and deporting extreme medical cases
Taboos: Trump tweet “go back” to Squad; Hose votes to condemn his racist language; “Send her home” chant at rally; Trump’s Baltimore tweet; El Paso shooting; More reporting on Trump’s rhetoric and the El Paso shooting, and his response; spat with Ohmar and Talib over visiting Israel; Trump calls Fed Chair an enemy of America; G7 Summit, talk of hosting next one at a Trump property
Russia Investigation: Mueller testifies before House; FBI IG report on Comey
Defections: Scaramucci defection; Joe Walsh calls for primary of Trump; Joe Walk announces he will run against Trump; Mattis starts book tour
Analysis: This dip was spread over seven weeks, which is longer than a typical dip. There are two phases. In the first half, the dip was spurred in part by Mueller’s congressional testimony in which the Mueller Report was in the news, and also by Trump’s taboo statements about the Squad and Baltimore. This was capped off at the end of the third week by the El Paso shooting. In the two weeks that followed there was a lot of conversation in the media about how Trump’s rhetoric partly inspired the gunman, with the “invasion” talk and the Squad chants fresh on everyone’s mind. Still, at this point the dip seemed to have stalled. In the sixth week of the dip there was serious concern and much reporting on a coming recession, which may have sustained the dip a bit longer.