Week 96: November 18-24

Trump made a statement intended to end the debate of the Khashoggi murder: “We may never know all of the facts surrounding the murder of Mr. Jamal Khashoggi. In any case, our relationship is with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” Here is how the New York Times described the official statement: “In 633 words, punctuated by eight exclamation points and written in an impolitic style that sounded like Mr. Trump’s off-the-cuff observations, the statement was a stark distillation of the Trump worldview: remorselessly transactional, heedless of the facts, determined to put America’s interests first, and founded on a theory of moral equivalence.”

Here is the full text of Trump’s statement, with key excerpts below:

  • “After my heavily negotiated trip to Saudi Arabia last year, the Kingdom agreed to spend and invest $450 billion in the United States. This is a record amount of money. It will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, tremendous economic development, and much additional wealth for the United States. Of the $450 billion, $110 billion will be spent on the purchase of military equipment from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and many other great U.S. defense contractors.”
  • “Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the Crown Prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t! That being said, we may never know all of the facts surrounding the murder of Mr. Jamal Khashoggi. In any case, our relationship is with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
  • “Representatives of Saudi Arabia say that Jamal Khashoggi was an “enemy of the state” and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, but my decision is in no way based on that.”
  • “After the United States, Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producing nation in the world. They have worked closely with us and have been very responsive to my requests to keeping oil prices at reasonable levels – so important for the world. As President of the United States I intend to ensure that, in a very dangerous world, America is pursuing its national interests and vigorously contesting countries that wish to do us harm. Very simply it is called America First!”

Just Security blog writes that the Magnitsky act requires the president to determine if the murder took place, and give Congress a formal intention to levy sanctions or not. Trump has not yet publicly done these things, though he may do them in a classified manner.

Instead of visiting troops for Thanksgiving he teleconferenced with them from Mara-Lago. Here is what he talked about.

On Friday the federal government released its congressionally required report of 13 federal agencies assessment on climate change. The report paints a dire future with widespread national impacts that “could slash up to a tenth of gross domestic product by 2100, more than double the losses of the Great Recession a decade ago.” The report is sure to be used in the courts to support laws designed to combat climate change.

Now that most of the midterm votes have been tallied, news outlets are drawing up their conclusions. Turnout was historically high with 49.4% of eligible voters actually voting, and nearly 60 million of those votes went to the Democrats, which is another anomaly because thats about the same number of votes that Trump won in 2016. The Washington Post writes that turnout was high for both sides because Trump successfully made the midterms all about him this energizing his base as well as the Democratic base. But this was and will continue to be a liability because as Nate Silver writes, Trump’s base is much smaller and won’t be enough for him to win reelection unless he expands it.

Immigration News:

A federal judge has struck down Trump’s order to block asylum to people who cross the border between ports of entry.

After Trump criticized the Ninth Circuit judge as an “Obama Judge” the AP sought a comment from John Roberts. Breaking his previous silence about Trump’s attack on the judiciary, Roberts gave a response this time: “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.”

Trump signed an order allowing troops at the border to use lethal force to protect border patrol agents. Kelly and Nielsen were opposed, and a cabinet fight ensued until the two came around to supporting the order. Mattis seemed to be caught off guard by the order and did not immediately embrace it.

In Russia News:

The White House is saying they have submitted their answers to Mueller’s questions.

The Mueller team said in court this week that the Whitaker appointment cannot retroactively affect DOJ actions taken before Whitaker’s appointment; that Muller still has the power of a U.S. attorney. We also learned that any sealed indictments cannot be overturned by Whitaker.

In the Spring of 2018 Trump ordered McGahn to tell DOJ to investigate Hillary Clinton and Comey. McGahn in turn had a memo drafted that explained why the White House could not make such a request.

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.9%

Discovery Theme Series | Theme 1: Xenophobia vs. Inclusion

A Star Trek’s prime directive is to tell a good story that has something to say about the human condition or the state of today’s society. Star Trek: Discovery (DSC) Season 1 has accepted that challenge more than any recent Trek series since DS9. Unlike all previous Treks, which were limited to 42 minute morality tales, DSC has a much wider canvas. Like some “prestige” modern serialized TV shows, DSC’s themes are complex and woven throughout all the of episodes in subtle ways. This theme series will pull the threads together so we can better understand exactly what DSC is trying to say in its first season. I count four primary themes, and will analyze each one in a blog post.    

  1. Xenophobia vs. Inclusion
  2. Perception vs. Identity (Nature vs. Nurture)
  3. Might vs. Right & Fate vs. Agency
  4. Faith vs. Fear

Theme 1: Xenophobia vs. Inclusion

  • Fear of other cultures is a poisonous ideology that can be easy to succumb to, but lasting security comes from inclusion.
  • It is easier to accept inclusion with outsiders only after members of a society have achieved unity.   

Let’s review all the cases where DSC Season 1 depicted xenophobia or bigotry and the struggle to overcome that with the ideal of inclusion. The problem of xenophobia is laid out in the first lines of the first episode by T’Kuvma: “They are coming. Atom by atom, they will coil around us and take all that we are.” This is textbook fear mongering from a fanatical bigot. The most notable thing about how it is handled in the two-part season opener is that T’Kuvma’s views are not commented upon within the episode in oldschool Trek moralizing fashion. The Klingon characters are allowed to spew their racism while the writers keep an anthropological distance, leading viewers to wonder if we are supposed to think T’Kuvma might have a point somewhere in all his speechifying. The Starfleet characters are set up merely as a contrast to this bigotry: being helpful to the bug-like aliens in the teaser; Burnham being awed by the beauty of the Klingon ship; Admiral Anderson not being able to even comprehend the Klingons’ murderous hatred even while his ship is being cleaved in two. It is not until the end of the season when a character finally declares, “T’Kuvma was an ignorant fool.” Because DSC is serialized, this season opener could not wrap up this theme in the final act with a captain’s speech like always happened in previous series. Instead it establishes a question: what happens when you use xenophobia as a tool to forge one type of unity (the Klingon houses) at the expense of the more expansive unity of peaceful coexistence with neighbors? By the end of the two-parter we don’t know exactly how the show will try to answer this question.

The theme is further developed in the next three episodes, although without the Klingons. The Ripper arc depicts the discovery and capture of the Tardigrade, the exploitation and near death of the creature to make the Spore Drive work, and Burnham’s insight about its true nature, which leads to her decision to set it free. The rest of the crew saw this sentient being as something to be feared, and once it was contained, as a mere animal that was expected to give its life to serve human needs. This view was prevalent over the three episodes, and even Saru succumbed to it. With the first five episodes of the series failing to take a firm moral stand on this theme right up until the last few minutes, it is no wonder that many fans were beginning to question whether DSC was ‘true Star Trek.’

But Burnham did take a stand. By putting herself in Ripper’s position, imagining how it thinks and feels, she practiced the one way to break the spell of xenophobia: empathy. Stamets sacrificing himself to save Ripper’s life is another important stand. When he injects himself with its DNA, making himself a little less Human, he shows that he does not share T’Kuvma’s fear of being changed “atom by atom” through unity with an alien, but that he embraces the opportunity.

What’s more, empathy and inclusivity wins the day: the ship’s mission is successful, and Ripper gets to go home. Everyone gets some of what they need.  

Once Ripper zips off to parts unknown, the xenophobia theme moves to Vulcan where we meet a member of an extremist group that believes Vulcans dilute their culture by being members of the Federation.

Speaking lines similar to T’kuvma, V’Latak says Sarek’s mission “does not reflect true Vulcan ideology,” and that his “fascination with humans can no longer be tolerated” because his “obsession” has blinded him to the fact that “Humans are inferior.” He calls the Federation a “failed experiment.” Like T’Kuvma, V’Latak martyrs himself for his cause. The episode shows that his views are commonly held by less fanatical Vulcans. As with the real world we all live in, there are strong political and social currents that inspire a minority to violence but cause many mainstream Vulcans to hold bigoted views of Humans. The Director of the Vulcan Expeditionary Group and others view Sarek as a threat because his family is a literal mixture of Human and Vulcan. He even calls it an “experiment,” which was V’Latak’s word for the Federation. Not a family, not a home of bonded people, but an ill-advised science project that should be shut down.       

In this episode, Sarek becomes a much more heroic Star Trek character than he already was. It is the narrative equivalent of a white man marrying a black woman during segregation, having an interracial child together, and then adopting a black daughter… and then being forced to chose how much he should lie to her to protect her from the pain of the bigotry being directed at them all… and then both of them being nearly killed by terrorists in two separate attacks years apart. We still do not know what motivated Sarek to build the type of family he did, but we know now how radical that decision was. And we know that Sarek is a strong believer in the power of unity and intermingling that the Federation exemplifies.

Here too unity is a strength, not a weakness. Burnham explains that she “shares part of his Katra, his eternal life force.” They are intertwined at a level beyond DNA and smaller than atoms. Sarek’s psychic bond with Burnham saved her life when she was nearly killed as a girl, and she used it to save his life when the terrorists came for him.    

Once in the Mirror Universe, our crew is dropped into a xenophobic culture that would make the Klingons blush. Emperor Georgiou tells Burnham, “your people are dangerous” because of Federation values like “equality, freedom, cooperation.” Lorca is able to inspire a coup with the message: “I’ve watched for years as you let alien races spill over the borders and flourish in our backyard, and have the gall to cite rebellion. Terrans need a leader who will preserve our way of life, our race.”

Part of DSC’s message is that this worldview provides only the illusion of strength. Terrans may have firepower, but they do not have much in the way of security and stability or even operational success. They are too busy backstabbing one another and fomenting coups to be effective (see also the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire).   

The same is true of the Klingons. T’Kuvma was killed almost immediately after he began his crusade, and his followers were easily co-opted by Kol. The only Klingon to succeed is L’Rell, and only because she bonded with Cornwall and cooperated with the Discovery crew. Landry is another example of someone whose inability to empathize drove her to make stupid and fatal mistakes.         

Burnham inherently understands that true strength and security will come from the trust that is built out of diversity and inclusion. When in the Mirror Universe she strives to understand how the Klingons, Vulcans, Andorians, and Tellarites have been able to find unity and form what she calls a “coalition of hope” in such a dark place. She wants to take the answer back to her own universe and use it to help the Klingons forge peace with the Federation. So she risks the mission and the lives of her crew to meet with the Fire Wolf. What did she learn? Below are the key lines from their long exchange:  

Burnham to Fire Wolf: You lead this group of vastly different species… I need to know how, how have you come to compromise and embrace each other.

Fire Wolf: A Teran enemy is a Klingon friend.

Burnham: Does that union not contradict your drive to defend the Klingon honor at all cost?

Fire Wolf: Klingons stand together and strong. It is only with our own houses in order that we can begin to invite others in.

Burnham: Thank you for your wisdom.

The Fire Wolf expresses the political reality that a fractured society is going to be insecure in itself, suspicious of opposing groups, fearful. Such a society is in no mood to court the complex social dance with outsiders, having no way to predict how those interactions will exacerbate existing internal divisions. One contemporary example is fear that Hispanic and Latin immigrants will drive changes in “traditional” American society and benefit one political party over another. Fortunately in America we have the tradition of pluralism that allows different groups of people to tolerate one another just enough that we can live and work together. Our balanced electoral system allows us to feel secure enough that we adhere into one nation. Despite our divisions we are able to “stand together and strong” when we have to. The Federation is like this: a framework that allows vastly different species to unify around a common identity. As we have seen before, your species must itself be unified in order to join. And members who have joined or considered joining have sometimes complained about a homogenized effect the Federation has over a species–“a Homo Sapiens only club.” The pull of nationalism (or speciesism) will always be strong in people, whether you are a member of the European Union who feels your cultural heritage has been diluted in the name of abstract international principles, or a Vulcan who feels you people’s way of life is being eroded by proximity to people who think differently than you do. These are real concerns, but pro-Federation partisans like Burnham or Kirk or Picard would argue that the alternatives of retrenchment, isolation and conflict are worse.           

 The Fire Wolf is expressing a much more basic motivation that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but he still makes the point that all the Klingon houses had to come together before they reached that conclusion and opened their arms to other species. This insight is the reason Burnham gives L’Rell the power to unify the Klingon houses, because only then would there be a chance for lasting peace with the Federation. Time will tell if DSC’s Season 2 depicts the second phase of this theme: cooperation, mutual respect, and empathy between Humans and Klingons. Since the Klingon storyline will be led in part by a Human-Klingon hybrid, it is likely this theme will continue to be explored. But we already know that the Klingon unification that comes at the end of the DSC/TOS era–the evacuation of Kronos–does bring about lasting peace with the Federation.

True unity and lasting security can only come from acceptance, or if that’s too much, at least toleration of the differences between us. We must get our own house in order before we can join with others, and the benefits of doing so are vast, and sometimes life saving. This may not seem very profound, but in the current political environment where some of our leaders teach that empathy is weakness and trust of outsiders is a foolish, potentially fatal mistake, it is true to Star Trek’s tradition to provide a counter argument. DSC Season 1 makes a strong one.          

Week 95: November 11-17

Sunday marked the centennial of the end of World War I. Macron hosted world leaders in France to commemorate the day, and use it as an opportunity to push back against growing nationalism. Macron hosted the Paris Pease Forum, a three day conferenced following the commemorations. Trump skipped most of the events, and left before the conference began.

Here is some of what Macron said in his speech: “Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism: Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism. In saying ‘our interests first, whatever happens to the others,’ you erase the most precious thing a nation can have, that which makes it lives, that which causes it to be great and that which is most important: Its moral values.”

Trump was in a foul mood during his France trip. He was angered that the late House and Senate races continued to be called for Democrats. He berated Theresa May when she called to congratulate him on the Republican wins. He was angry that Whitaker was getting negative news coverage. He was angry at Macron for his remarks on nationalism, which he considered a personal attack. He was angry at his staff for the negative coverage he got for skipping the ceremony at the American cemetery, blamed them privately for not telling him it would look bad, then publicly blamed the Secret Service for not letting him go (which was a lie).

Whitaker Appointment

Here is a survey of Whitaker’s resume, which includes some small businesses with legal problems. George W Bush plucked him from obscurity to be a US Attorney in 2004 after he worked on his local Iowa campaign: “James Eisenstein, a professor emeritus at Pennsylvania State University who has studied the federal court system, said he knows of no U.S. attorneys with résumés like Whitaker’s.”

Here is the DOJ Office of Legal Council memo that explains why Whitaker’s appointment is legal. It says, “the President may designate an official to perform the duties of a vacant principal officer, including a Cabinet office, even when the acting official has not been confirmed by the senate.”

Experts agree this opinion is not the final word but will either be overturned or upheld in the courts. Just Security writes about how the Whitaker appointment is nearly unprecedented: “the vast majority of historical cases in which someone has stepped in to perform the functions of a ‘vacant’ office of the head of a department, that ‘acting’ official has been someone holding another office in that same department—usually a ‘deputy’ or ‘first assistant’—whom the Senate has already confirmed for that underlying office.” And this: “although the President reportedly planned to rid himself of Sessions many months ago, he did not announce a nomination of a replacement for the Senate’s consideration when he created the vacancy. We can’t say for certain that that’s never happened before with respect to the head of a department; but if has, it’s very rare. (We’re aware of one partial analogy, but presumably it’s not one Trump would eagerly cite as a precedent: After the Saturday Night Massacre in late October 1973, it took President Nixon 13 days to announce his intent to nominate William Saxbe to replace Elliot Richardson.”

The constitutional case is more interesting. The OLC memo cites the case of a non-senate-confirmed appointment to temporarily replace the ambassador to Siam in 1898. The officer served in Bangkok for 10 months, and the Supreme Court ruled that the appointment was valid because he was “charged with the performance of the duty of the superior for a limited time and under special and temporary conditions.” The case is referred to as Eaton. In its memo the OLC cited one of its own decisions from 1977 on this question: the appointment “may not continue indefinitely. Within a reasonable time after the occurrence of a vacancy in the office of Director, the President should submit a nomination to the Senate.” Just Security concludes that this “is best understood to mean that [the duration of the appointment] must be at least reasonably tailored to the exigency that required disregarding the Appointments Clause requirements… That means, at a minimum—and as the Thomas concurrence and 1977 OLC opinion suggest—that if the President assigns the functions to someone who does not satisfy the Appointments Clause, the President must make reasonable efforts to have the vacancy filled expeditiously, by nominating a new officer for the Senate’s consideration.” There is no indication that is about to happen. In fact Whitaker spoke with Lindsay Graham about his DOJ priorities for 2019. 

Lawyers in a court federal case have asked the Supreme Court to determine the legality of Whitaker’s appointment.

In other news: 

Mattis when to the boarder to inspect the troop deployment there. The migrant caravan is not crossing in droves. NBC news: “According to internal DHS reports and officials tracking the caravan, the first wave of approximately 3,500 migrants are expected to arrive in Tijuana in the coming days and attempt to cross into California. Even there, they won’t swarm the border crossing, but are instead expected to wait in a bottleneck for days before they can enter San Ysidro, California to make an asylum claim.”

Trump gave an interview with The Daily Caller. Here is what he said about the midterms and the new Democratic majority in the House: 

  • “Look, we have a chance of, they can do presidential harassment, put very simply, and I’ll be very good at handling that and I think I’ll be better than anybody in the history of this office. And in a certain way I look forward to it because I actually think it’s good for me politically, because everyone knows it’s pure harassment. Just like the witch hunt, the Mueller witch hunt. It’s pure harassment. It’s horrible. It’s horrible that they’re allowed to get away with it.
  • “Don’t forget, I didn’t really have a majority. I had one senator. And I had a few Republicans in the House. You know, a very small number. Um, and now the pressure’s on them because they’ve gotta come to me with things.” 

A recording of Khashoggi’s killers catch them saying “tell your boss” that their mission is completed, wherein the boss is believed by US intelligence to be the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. It was leaked that the CIA believes that the Saudi Crown Prince ordered Khashoggi’s murder. Trump is still trying to downplay the possibility.

The New York Times reports on new North Korea intelligence: “The satellite images suggest that the North has been engaged in a great deception: It has offered to dismantle a major launching site — a step it began, then halted — while continuing to make improvements at more than a dozen others that would bolster launches of conventional and nuclear warheads.”

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.5%

The 5 Paths Forward for Trump’s Popularity

With the 2018 midterm election behind us, and two years to go until Trump’s reelection or defeat, it is a good time to establish some parameters around what we can expect from the public’s support or disapproval of the president going forward. This will help us interpret changes in his approval rating, or lack thereof, as they are happening. There are five paths Trump’s popularity may take over the next two years.

Path 1: Same old-Same old 

This path assumes that Trump’s approval rating in the last half of his term will behave the same way it did during the first half. Here is what we can expect for the average approval dip:

  • They will occur 3 weeks (and no more than 8 weeks) after the previous one
  • They will last about 4 weeks
  • They will have a decline of about 1.5 to 2 points
  • On the severity scale, a little more than half will rank in the 6-10 range, and a little less than half rank in the 1-5 range
  • Trump’s approval rating will stay between 38-42%, perhaps going lower or higher for brief periods

This path assumes that the four factors that have resulted in Trump’s approval decline-White House policy, White House chaos, Trump taboos, and the Russia investigation–will continue to affect public thinking in the same way they have up to now.

Path 2: Treading Water

An approval dip is characterized by a significant drop in approval, or incremental drops sustained over a number of weeks. When Trump is not in an approval dip, his rating bobs around, dropping half a point one week, gaining a point the next, dropping half a point again the week after that. For example, here are Trump’s approval ratings for each of the 8 weeks leading up to the midterms:

He gains ground then loses some, on repeat. For most of 2018 Trump’s approval has been bobbing between 40-42%. He has a ceiling somewhere between 42-43%. But he also has a floor of about 40%, having only dipped down to 39.9% for a few days this year (this happened last summer during Episode 12,  when Cohen and Manafort took plea deal and John McCain died).

So the Treading Water path assumes that Trump’s dips will happen mush less frequently and will represent shallower approval declines, but also that Trump will not break much above his 42% ceiling either. There is some evidence that it is getting easier for him to maintain this kind of approval. In 2017, dips were occurring about every 2.2 weeks, while this year they occur about ever 4.2 weeks. In 2017 the average decline was 2.5 points, while in 2018 the average decline was 1.1 points.

It is hard to say what accounts for this because the negative news cycles that drive the approval dips have been just as dire in 2018 as they were in 2017. Other than the incidents mentioned above, they include: Stormy Daniels payments; multiple Mueller indictments; bipartisan condemnation of the child-separation policy; the Putin summit in Helsinki; White House chaos stories from Omarosa and Woodward. It is possible that the public has grown so numb to Trump antics that breaking news coverage about those antics have had less power to shock than it did during Trump’s first year in office. The result is that people are paying less attention, or they are less likely to voice disapproval because a certain level of dislike for Trump’s antics are now baked into the public’s conception of how they think about Trump’s performance. If this is the case, it will make it easier for Trump to tread water at 42% in his third year.

Path 3: Normalization

Below are the average approval ratings for the previous four presidents during their third year in office.

  • Obama: 44%
  • Bush (43): 60.5%
  • Clinton: 47.5%
  • Bush (41): 73%

The average of these is 56.3%, which is close to the average (57.5%) for all presidential first terms going back to Truman. But sticking with these four recent presidents, let’s subtract the Bushes who’s approval was inflated due to popular wars that happened in their respective third years. This leaves a non-war third year approval rating of 45.75%.

Trump has never achieved a 45% approval rating. The only time he was at 44% was during the first four weeks of his term. So if Trump’s approval goes above 45% we will know that the public writ large is giving its approval to his presidency in the same measure as other presidents, hence they will be treating Trump as a normal president. What might cause this?

The first possibility is that Trump begins to behave more like a normal president, or he at least tones it down enough that the public begins to accept him as normal.

Another possibility is that Trump will not change but will successfully cast the events of the next two years as normal partisan politics. One advantage he will gain is a clear political opponent: the Democratic-controlled House. Before now, by any reasonable and traditional understanding of our political system, Trump was responsible for just about everything because he and his party controlled the entire federal government. When things went wrong there was nowhere else to look for blame but Trump. He often tried to deflect that blame onto the Democrats (for Obamacare repeal failure, immigration laws, wall funding, even his own child-separation policy), but this was not taken seriously by the media because the Democrats had no power in Congress. In almost all cases, Trump had failed to lead his own party and in many cases is own administration. That changes starting in 2019. The media will not be able to cast its critical eye exclusively on Trump and his “lackeys” in Congress, but reporters and pundits will be able to pick apart the decisions, statements and gaffs of Nancy Pelosi and her committee chairmen like Adam Schiff, Elijah Cummings and Jerry Nadler, not to mention lower ranking rabble rousers like Maxine Waters. Trump will not be able to saddle them with all the blame for negative events, but the media and the public will hold Democrats at least partly to account for the power that they do wield. The public will perceive the partisan back-and-forth as normal politics, thus elevating Trump to the same plane as “normal” presidents who battled with Congress like Clinton or Obama.

Having a live opponent will also recast the approval-disapproval question. With Trump on stage all by himself, it is a straightforward answer. But when he is standing beside empowered Democrats, personified by Pelosi or whoever the Speaker will be, some percentage of the public who may disapprove of Trump in a given week will instead tell pollsters they approve because they do not want their disapproval to be construed as support for Democrats.

Path 4: Cratering

Trump’s lowest approval rating is around 36%, which he reached twice: after Charlottesville, and after the Flynn guilty plea and Roy Moore campaign. Dropping into the mid-to-low 30s, or even dropping his baseline from the low 40s to the mid 30s would constitute a cratering approval rating. For most of 2017, he was between 37-38%, so being lower than that for a sustained period would be unprecedented for him and suggest something has shifted in how the public perceives his job performance.

This may result from the normal things that have caused presidential approval to drop, such as a national disaster of his own making or not. Or it could be the reverse of the numbing effect described in Path 2. Trump’s attempts to make excuses for or divert attention from his problems may stop working. Instead of accepting that “Trump is gonna Trump” a chunk of the population that has so far given him the benefit of the doubt may decide they have had enough and move into the permanently disapprove camp.

Path 5: Bottom Falls Out

In the last 12 months of Nixon’s presidency his approval rating averaged out to 26.8%. The year before, his average was 51.7%. Over an eight month period in 1973 he dropped from 65% to 29%. So Nixon went from having the support of well over half of the country to losing a full half of his support.

If Trump lost half of his support he would be in the low 20s, which is unlikely given the strength of his base support and the partisan divide in the country, which did not exist in the Nixon era. My hunch is that Trump and Congressional Republicans could pretend their situation was manageable if Trump were in the mid-to-low 30s (hence the Cratering path), but if he dropped to 30% or lower they would be unable to govern. Losing 12-15% of previous support would mean about a third of his supporters had abandoned him. This is when Republicans start talking about their options: resignation, a primary challenge, or impeachment.

Some potential causes: a devastating Mueller report; a national disaster decidedly of Trump’s own making.

Which path is most likely?  My hunch is that we will see some combination of treading water and normalization, where Trump’s dips are less frequent and his overall approval inches up a bit. The factors that would drive these two paths–numbing and having an opposition–will be strong in the coming year. Also, this seems to be the path he has already been on in 2018. His approval has basically stabilized between 40-42%. As I write this, Trump’s approval average is 41.8% which is about what it has been since mid-September. Unless a dip begins soon, he will have gone nine weeks without one, which would be a record stretch for him. I would not be surprised if his approval cratered, but that would require the public to change how they have been behaving toward Trump these past two years. As for the Mueller report, and how the public will react, only a fool would make a prediction. All I know for sure is that in six months the data will point to one of these five paths.

Week 94: November 4-10

Three days before Election Day in Georgia the GOP candidate for governor, who is also Secretary of State, without any evidence opened an investigation into the Democrats for trying to hack the state’s voter rolls. The statement from his spokesman: “This was a 4th quarter Hail Mary pass that was intercepted in the end zone. Thanks to the systems and protocols established by Secretary of State Brian Kemp, no personal information was breached. These power-hungry radicals should be held accountable for their criminal behavior.” Kemp has done this before, in 2016: “An independent investigation by the department’s inspector general, which operates independently from the department’s chain of command, found that the activity Mr. Kemp believed was suspicious was, in fact, normal behavior between computer systems.”

The question in the coverage just before Election Day focuses on whether Trump-style politics can help the party win as a whole without Trump on the ballot, and what it will mean for American politics if the answer is yes. This Washington Post article lists some of examples of race-bating campaign tactics GOP candidates have used, and then states: “By running so overtly on racially tinged messages, the GOP is putting that explosive form of politics on the ballot. If Republicans maintain control of the House, the notion of running a campaign built on blunt, race-based attacks on immigrants and minorities will have been validated. A loss, on the other hand, might prompt a number of Republicans to call for a rethinking of the party’s direction — but that would collide with a sitting president who, if anything, relishes over-the-edge rhetoric.”

On Election Day, the Democrats won control of the House, while Republicans maintained control of the Senate. Democrats flipped seven governor seats, six state legislatures, and over 300 state-level seats. (By the end of the week, several races had yet to be called. Florida and Arizona senate races are going into a recount. The Florida governor’s race is also going into a recount, and the Georgia governor’s race is uncalled.)

On the day after, Sessions was asked by John Kelly to submit his resignation. He did so, and was replaced by his chief of staff Mathew Whitaker, who has expressed criticism of the Muller investigation repeatedly over the past year.

The first sentence of Session’s letter proves he was forced out, which is not much of a surprise: “As your request, I am submitting my resignation.”

There are potentially grave consequences for the Russia investigation. Whitaker will take over supervision of Mueller, will get the final decision on indictments, or what is in the final report, and the investigation’s budget. However, if he overrules Mueller, Whitaker must notify Congress that he has done so, but not until the conclusion of the entire investigation.

According to Marty Ederman of Just Security, Whitaker can control Mueller’s budget, however his budget may be locked in through the fiscal year until October 2019. Whitaker will have the final say on Mueller’s final report, and whether it can be made public or sent to Congress. The regulations say that Whitaker must be consulted by Muller about next steps in the investigation, and he may “conclude that the [planned] action is so inappropriate or unwarranted under established Departmental practices that it should not be pursued.”

This Lawfare post contains a list of all the evidence Whitaker is not a fan of the Mueller investigation based on his public comments over the last year. They also write that Whitaker is obligated to request DOJ ethics lawyers to determine if he should recuse: “If Whitaker either does not obtain an ethics opinion from career officials or if he departs from that guidance, that would be a serious red flag.” Lawfare submitted and FOIA request to prove whether or not the ethics request have been made. 

The Lawfare writers are clear on this point: “The president fired the attorney general, as he once fired the FBI director, for plainly illegitimate reasons: because the attorney general acted appropriately on an investigative matter in which Trump himself has the deepest of personal interests. Trump does not even pretend there are other reasons. He removed the attorney general because the attorney general did not protect him from investigation. Yes, the president has the raw power to do this. But as was the case with the firing of James Comey, it is an abuse of the power he wields.”

George Conway argues that Whitaker’s appointment is invalid because the Attorney General must be senate-confirmed: “President Trump’s installation of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general of the United States after forcing the resignation of Jeff Sessions is unconstitutional. It’s illegal. And it means that anything Mr. Whitaker does, or tries to do, in that position is invalid.”

The Wall Street Journal reports: “The Federal Bureau of Investigation is conducting a criminal investigation of a Florida company accused of scamming millions from customers during the period that Matthew Whitaker, the acting U.S. attorney general, served as a paid advisory-board member.”

Adam Schiff, the incoming chair of the House Intelligence Committee, is giving multiple interviews the day after the election in which he is talking about how the House will pursue the Russia investigation. In these interviews he mentions Russia money laundering through Trump business deals, and the suspicion that Don Jr. was calling Trump’s blocked number while he was talking to Russian businessmen about the upcoming Trump Tower meeting. Crafting a political argument for his work he says, “we need to be able to look into it and be able to tell the country, ‘Yes, this is true,’ or ‘No, this is not.’ But I think it would be negligent not to find out.””

Trump gave an East Room press conference the day after the election. Here are the highlights. He says Republicans won an “almost complete victory.” Of note is how he deflects the House losses by arguing that the candidates who asked him to stay away are the ones who lost: “On the other hand, you had some that decided to stay away. “Let’s stay away.” They did very poorly. I’m not sure that I should be happy or sad, but I feel just fine about it.”

Trump explained how he is thinking the dynamic will be between his administration and the Democratic House should it choose to aggressively investigate: “They can play that game, but we can play it better, because we have a thing called the United States Senate. They can look at us, then we can look at them and it’ll go back and forth. And it’ll probably be very good for me politically . . . because I think I’m better at that game than they are, actually.” McConnell is not publicly agreeing with Trump to use the Senate to counter-investigate Democrats, but he is repeating the talking point that the Democrats would be unwise to engage in “presidential harassment.”

In Immigration News:

The day after the election the DOD dropped the name of the 5,000 active duty troop border operation. Instead of call it Operation Faithful Patriot they will “merely referring to it as border support.”

The Trump Administration rushed through a new regulation this week that will not allow anyone who crosses the US-Mexico border between ports of entry–ie, illegally–to apply for asylum.

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.2%

Week 93: October 29-November 3

Sunday afternoon after the Synagogue massacre, Trump tweeted: “The Fake News is doing everything in their power to blame Republicans, Conservatives and me for the division and hatred that has been going on for so long in our Country. Actually, it is their Fake & Dishonest reporting which is causing problems far greater than they understand!”

The President and the the First Lady were met with protests and the welcome of no public officials when they visited the Pittsburgh Synagogue. The mayor and the top four Republican and Democratic congressional leaders who were invited to join him all declined.

The migrant caravan has shrunk by over half to around 3,000 people. Yet Trump ordered 5,200 troops to the border by the end of the week. The move is being criticized for using active duty military as a prop in a midterm election stunt.

Conspiracies about the caravan are widespread among people who consume right-leaning media. Several people in the Trump Administration, including Trump himself, are pushing out the idea that the caravan includes “criminals and Middle Easterners.” Both the pipe bomber and the Synagogue shooter were bothered by the caravan.

Adam Sewer makes an explicit case that Trump’s caravan rhetoric was in part responsible for the shooting: “Before committing the Tree of Life massacre, the shooter, who blamed Jews for the caravan of “invaders” and who raged about it on social media, made it clear that he was furious at HIAS, founded as the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, a Jewish group that helps resettle refugees in the United States. He shared posts on Gab, a social-media site popular with the alt-right, expressing alarm at the sight of “massive human caravans of young men from Honduras and El Salvador invading America thru our unsecured southern border.” And then he wrote, “HIAS likes to bring invaders in that kill our people. I can’t sit by and watch my people get slaughtered. Screw your optics, I’m going in.””

Here is a survey of Trump’s closing campaign arguments, a replay of his 2016 greatest hits: economic populism, xenophobia, and tough-guy rhetoric. We will know next week how successful it is.

As the week ended, Trump doubled down on fear of immigration as his closing election argument, making speeches that stoke fear of the migrant caravan, and releasing an internet campaign video of an illegal Mexican immigrant cop-killer. He claims–contrary to law–that the military will be able to shoot migrants and arrest them.

As for the troops Trump has ordered to the border: “Officials said that forces are staging at military installations for now because it is unclear precisely where on the border their main object of concern — several caravans of Central American migrants, the first of which is now in central Mexico — will head.”

As some predicted over the summer, the tax law failed to work as a campaign issue for Republicans, and so immigration fear mongering filled the void. This week Republicans announced that they would not tackle additional tax cuts until 2019. 

Turkey revealed that Khashoggi was strangled upon entrance in the consulate, and then his body was dismembered and destroyed.

The Trump administration reimposed oil sanctions on Iran that were in place before the nuclear pact, however they gave wavers to eight mostly Asian countries. Europe was not granted any waivers.

Congressional democrats released more evidence this week that the Trump Administration is trying to keep the FBI headquarters from being moved to outside Washington. They want the current J. Edgar Hoover building to be demolished and replaced in the same site. The suspicion is that Trump does not want commercial buildings build on the current site because that might lead to competition with his hotel.

In Russia News:

This week, Muller’s team interviewed people, including Bannon, about Roger Stone’s connection to Wikileaks and the release of the Podesta emails.

Roger Stone is in the news a lot this week. He has released some emails with Bannon where they are discussing the Wikileaks dump. Text messages with a friend who is being interviewed by Muller have also been released. This indicates that in this campaign season lull, Mueller and the grand jury have been busy talking to people about Stone, who are in turn talking to the press. It may indicate that charges will be brought against Stone after the election.

The Jaworski “Road Map,” a Special Prosecutor’s report to congress about impeaching Nixon was unsealed this week. It had never been made public and several groups, including Lawfare.org pushed for its release in part to reveal a possible precedent for Mueller to follow regarding the Russia investigation and Trump.

Here is Wittes and Goldsmith’s analysis. They note that the Jaworski Road Map did not accuse Nixon of crimes, just laid out the evidence of the crimes; it did not recommend impeachment but said “that the evidence referred to above [should] be transmitted forthwith to the House Judiciary Committee for such use as it considers appropriate.” In other words, less it more. They close with one important lesson of the Trump era: “There is a tendency in the age of Donald Trump to assume that excess is needed to combat excess, that the proper response to gross norm violations involve the scrapping of other norms. Yet faced with Richard Nixon, Leon Jaworski wrote a meticulous 55-page document that contains not a word of excess. He transmitted it to Congress, where it did not leak. It is powerful partly because it is so by-the-book. Kind of like Bob Mueller.”

Then there was this strange story“A company that appears to be run by a pro-Trump conspiracy theorist offered to pay women to make false claims against Special Counsel Robert Mueller in the days leading up to the midterm elections—and the special counsel’s office has asked the FBI to weigh in. ‘When we learned last week of allegations that women were offered money to make false claims about the Special Counsel, we immediately referred the matter to the FBI for investigation,’ the Mueller spokesman Peter Carr told me in an email on Tuesday.”

Trump’s Job Approval Rating: 42.1%