Episode 19
Rank: 6
Decline: -2.10%
Lowest Approval: 40.7%
Date Range: September 28-October 26, 2019
Key Events:
Impeachment: Trump admits to asking Ukraine to investigate Biden; Pelosi announces formal Impeachment hearings; call summary released, with Trump asking Zelensky for a favor; Whistleblower complain released; Three House committees subpoenaed Giuliani; Pompeo and Pence are involved, refuse to cooperate; Trump asks China to investigate Biden; private messages about the Ukraine deal between Volker, Taylor and Sondland are released; News that Perry is involved and House subpoenas him; 2nd whistleblower comes forward; The White House sent a letter to the House saying they will refuse to turn over any documents, witnesses or participate in any way with impeachment; The SDNY filed an indictment against two associates of Giuliani; Yanakovitch testifies in closed session; More close door testimony: Hill, Kent, others; Congressional Democrats meet with Trump and walk out; Mulvaney press conference; Bill Taylor close-door testimony; Trump allies storm the closed door hearings to protest the process; News that Ukraine was aware of the hold on aid in August,
Policy: Trump’s call with Turkey and announcement of Syria pull out; Bipartisan House vote against Trump’s Syria decision
Analysis: The number of causes for Trump’s approval decline has grown by one with this episode, as the direct cause of the decline is something new to his presidency: Impeachment. Although it is important to remember that during this dip the Trump Administration received a couple weeks of sustained bad news cycles, including stiff Republican push back, over the decision to pull out of Syria and allow the Turks to attack the Kurds. The approval dropped sharply in the week after Pelosi announced impeachment, which was also the week in which Trump and the White House admitted to what he was being accused of and released official evidence as well. The next sharp decline happened two weeks later, after daily reports of what was being learned in closed door House testimony, and after acting chief of staff Mulvaney gave a press conference in which he admitted to the quid pro quo (the Syria new cycle was also happening this week).
A decline with a rank of 6 is significant. A dip this sever has not occurred since January 2019, which was due in part to the government shut down. And only 6 of the 19 dips have been worse than this one.
The dip ended October 26, Week 145, after lasting 5 weeks. Interestingly the slight uptick in approval has corresponded with open House hearings. During this time we have not learned much that was not reported from the close-door hearings which happened during the dip. So for two weeks the hearings were televised and people could hear from the original sources, instead of reading about it in the paper or hearing pundits report what happened. Public hearings just closed this week (Week 148) and we will see if the fact that “old” information was televised will cause a new dip in Trump’s approval. The day after public hearings ended, Trump’s approval had almost ticked back up to his stasis point of 42% (41.9%).